Awaiting Major Events Ahead

- Anthropic’s IPO filing was made public, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rebounded 2.9%. According to reports, the company aims to begin its roadshow on November 9, with pricing and a listing targeted for the third week of November. The offering could raise as much as $100 billion, although neither the amount nor the timetable has been finalized. As with SpaceX’s listing, funds earmarked for IPO subscriptions could be tied up during the roadshow, potentially leaving tech stocks sluggish. Still, the prospect of fresh capital entering the AI sector raises hopes of some breathing room for small- and mid-cap companies facing widespread financing concerns amid high interest rates. Sources: Axios on market developments and IPO size · Expected listing timetable, citing IFR

- U.S. semiconductor stocks found support near their 200-day moving average. In Korea, expectations of a special dividend from SK Hynix helped cushion the decline. While the KOSPI fell 1.46% yesterday, SK Hynix held up relatively well, slipping just 0.16% to KRW 1,275,000. Reports suggested the company was pursuing a KRW 16 trillion special dividend, but it said nothing had been finalized and that it planned to announce additional shareholder returns at its earnings release on Wednesday, October 28. I remain on the sidelines today. Momentum-based buying opportunities in the Korean market have become extremely scarce. Sources: Semiconductor support near the 200-day moving average · KOSPI close · SK Hynix’s share price and shareholder-return disclosure

- Brazil’s presidential election result sent shockwaves through markets. Brazilian equities, which had been pricing in a victory for Flávio Bolsonaro, plunged after Lula won reelection with 51.8% of the vote. The Ibovespa dropped roughly 17% intraday, triggering a circuit breaker, while the real fell around 12% against the dollar in early trading. Global prices of agricultural commodities exported by Brazil also declined, with soybean futures falling more than 2% intraday and raw sugar futures dropping more than 6%. With volatility of this magnitude, it is worth considering whether some macro hedge funds may have been forced to unwind positions. I considered taking an opportunistic position, but the volatility has kept me watching from the sidelines. Sources: Bloomberg on Brazil’s market reaction · Reuters on currencies and agricultural commodity prices

- Wednesday and Thursday will likely be pivotal, but the case for lower long-term bond yields still appears intact. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell 2 basis points, from 5.00% the previous day to 4.98%. In Korean time, SK Hynix reports earnings on October 28, followed by the FOMC decision at 3:00 a.m. on October 29, then U.S. third-quarter GDP and September PCE data at 9:30 p.m. that day. With all the major events concentrated on Wednesday and Thursday, there is little reason to trade actively this Tuesday. Sources: AP on U.S. Treasury yields · Federal Reserve FOMC calendar · BEA economic release schedule